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In fact, the business life cycle has become an integral part of the corporate finance, valuation and investing classes that I teach, and in many of the posts that I have written on this blog. If you are concerned that you are going to be hit with a sales pitch for that book, far from it!
What is a hurdlerate for a business? In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdlerates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdlerates to vary across companies. What is a hurdlerate?
In this post, I will focus on how companies around the world, and in different sectors, performed on their end game of delivering profits, by first focusing on profitability differences across businesses, then converting profitability into returns, and comparing these returns to the hurdlerates that I talked about in my last data update post.
Data: Trickle to a Flood! It is perhaps a reflection of my age that I remember when getting data to do corporate financial analysis or valuation was a chore. By the same token, it is impossible to use a pricing metric (PE or EV to EBITDA), without a sense of the cross sectional distribution of that metric at the time.
That year, I computed these industry-level statistics for five variables that I found myself using repeatedly in my valuations, and once I had them, I could not think of a good reason to keep them secret. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Insider, CEO & Institutional holdings 2.
It is perhaps a reflection of my age that I remember when getting data to do corporate financial analysis or valuation was a chore. Thus, without a sense of what comprises a high or low profit margin for a firm, or what the cost of capital is for the typical company, it is easy to create "fairy tale" valuations and analyses.
To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. It is very likely that these rules of thumb were developed from data and observation, but at a different point in time.
” look at the Monte Carlo simulations, look at what is the hurdlerate. So, last year, valuations were high, interest rates were low. And I said, “Look, you’ve got to look at where we are with valuations, and you have to look at where the 10-year Treasury is at. Is it at 1.5%? .”
With 83% of the s and p 500 reporting earnings sales are roughly in line. And one of the worst performing factors has been valuation. And I think that’s wrong because valuation does matter. You know, it matters over a longer time period than maybe just the next day or two 00:30:10 [Speaker Changed] Valuation matters.
And so we, we get this contract written and I go off to grad school assuming I would go work at a big bank doing sales and trading in some quant role. 00:21:21 [Speaker Changed] So this story came out that, oh, value is defensive because it has this valuation buffer to it 00:21:28 [Speaker Changed] In that one example.
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