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In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdlerates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
What is a hurdlerate for a business? In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdlerates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdlerates to vary across companies. What is a hurdlerate?
During the course of the year, investors also rediscovered that the essence of business is not growing revenues or adding users, but making profits from that growth. In this post, I will focus on trend lines in profitability at companies in 2022, with the intent of addressing multiple questions.
If you are concerned that you are going to be hit with a sales pitch for that book, far from it! The third is to focus on the operating metrics of the firm, with firms that deliver high revenue growth, with low/negative profits and negative free cash flows being treated as young firms.
That said, it does mean that any broad conclusions (about profitability and revenues) that emerge from my data apply to public companies, and it may be dangerous to extrapolate to private businesses, especially in a year like 2020 where private businesses could have been affected more adversely by COVID shutdowns than public companies.
And so we, we get this contract written and I go off to grad school assuming I would go work at a big bank doing sales and trading in some quant role. So you’ve got, you’ve got a modeling hurdlerate that you need to figure out when you’re adding diversifiers. The second is behavioral. Real really intriguing.
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