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During the course of the year, investors also rediscovered that the essence of business is not growing revenues or adding users, but making profits from that growth. In this post, I will focus on trend lines in profitability at companies in 2022, with the intent of addressing multiple questions.
Not surprisingly, the operating metrics change as companies age, with high revenue growth accompanied by big losses (from work-in-progress business models) and large reinvestment needs (to delivery future growth) in early-stage companies to large profits and free cash flows in the mature phase to stresses on growth and margins in decline.
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdlerates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
And you know, just simple things like, hey, the value of tax loss harvesting, how do you make that apparent to people? BUCKLEY: Well, the way we’re built, being client owned, it’s the way we return profits to our clients. You know, we’ve had been lucky, it’s been very profitable year after year.
What is a hurdlerate for a business? In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdlerates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdlerates to vary across companies. What is a hurdlerate?
The dividend principle, which is the focus of this post is built on a very simple principle, which is that if a company is unable to find investments that make returns that meet its hurdlerate thresholds, it should return cash back to the owners in that business.
As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop. That is why the risk-free rate becomes an input into option pricing and forward pricing models , and its absence leaves a vacuum.
That said, it does mean that any broad conclusions (about profitability and revenues) that emerge from my data apply to public companies, and it may be dangerous to extrapolate to private businesses, especially in a year like 2020 where private businesses could have been affected more adversely by COVID shutdowns than public companies.
So you’ve got, you’ve got a modeling hurdlerate that you need to figure out when you’re adding diversifiers. I, I kind of feel a little bit of a loss that that’s gone away. So I sell my stocks to make room for gold and it doesn’t, turns out my forecast is wrong. The second is behavioral.
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