Barry Ritholtz

MARCH 18, 2025

This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4. Index (mostly).

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Investments Math Concentration Valuation 127

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 12, 2024

So when I see a chart like this two things come to mind the first is that looking at crisis peaks — GFC and Covid-19 — is inherently problematic; you are taking outliers that come along once every 15-20 years as opposed to the ordinary treasury issuances. Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S.

Treasury 138

Treasury Currencies Forecasting Investments 138

Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

So whether you’re trying to get managed futures from an active manager or, you know, two months Treasuries, T bills, like the whole spectrum is now available in lose to 3,000 ETFs we are trading here in the U.S. NADIG: Well, I mean, there’s like TLT, with the big Treasury funds, LQD and HYG. It’s how math works.

Investments 111

Investments Finance Marketing Math 111

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 29, 2023

And when you think about translating the S&P 500 PE to an implied equity risk premium by looking at the 10 year treasury yield, you’re 200 basis points below what it’s been for the last 10 years. DAVIS: Yes, we try not to be in the short-term forecasting game. DAVIS: So on the bond side, we have both.

Investments 52

Investments Benchmarking Valuation Construction 52

Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

But since you mentioned getting return on the risk you take, how do you think about duration when the three-month Treasury is more or less the same or better than the 10-year? RIEDER: Why do you need the price of the Treasury market to the two-year forward or the three-year forward? And I think people underestimate U.S. RIEDER: Yeah.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) 59

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Investments Marketing Education 59

Barry Ritholtz

MARCH 12, 2024

We participated in that with treasury and FHFA and the regulators, the White House. So that was the, that was the sort of the thing that we built that people hadn’t thought through is how do you stochastically forecast a range of outcomes for the asset price? Then how does it affect the repayment risk on the loan?

Profit and Loss 59

Profit and Loss Investments Marketing Securities 59

Barry Ritholtz

MARCH 17, 2025

They’ve made forecasts, they’ve made predictions about what will and won’t happen, and none of it’s come true. And he’s this old British guy who was, you know, quite famous in England as a policy advisor and an economic forecaster. Wasn’t the Excel spreadsheet error, which changed their math.

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Budgeting Economics Math Numbers 59