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10 Biggest Ideas in “How NOT to Invest”

Barry Ritholtz

This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4.

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Confessions of an FP&A-holic: 7 Lessons I Wish I Knew Earlier

Fpanda Club

Working a lot with uncertainty, be it planning, forecasting or analysis of the business initiative to pursue, curious FP&A team members are able to ask the right questions, identify new trends and patterns, and uncover insights and opportunities that can drive the business forward.

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Error Metrics: How to Evaluate Your Forecasts

Jedox Finance

When considering the performance of any forecasting model, the prediction values it produces must be evaluated. An error metric is a way to quantify the performance of a model and provides a way for the forecaster to quantitatively compare different models 1. Where y’ is forecasted value and y is the true value.

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How Different Monte Carlo Models Perform In The Real World: Assessing Quality Of Predictiveness In Retirement Income Forecasting Models

Nerd's Eye View

When planning for retirement, it’s effectively impossible to precisely forecast the performance and timing of future investment returns, which in turn makes it challenging to accurately predict a plan’s success or failure.

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10 Bad Takes On This Market

Barry Ritholtz

How bad at math do you need to be to think that it’s only 5 stocks driving this market? But people have been forecasting an imminent recession for 18 months — and we still have yet to have one. Earnings will fail THIS Q Earnings forecasts are hilariously wrong most of the time, as are revenue forecasts… 8.

Marketing 115
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The “Art” of Market Timing

Barry Ritholtz

October 22, 2012) Investing via Media Market Timing (February 8, 2009) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Sources : We Found 30 Timing Strategies that “Worked”—and 690 that Didn’t By Wei Dai, PhD, Audrey Dong, DFA, Oct 31, 2023 In the Stock Market, Don’t Buy and Sell. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov. More on this later.

Marketing 121
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Catastrophizing Debt

Barry Ritholtz

~~~ Talking about the future requires a lot more humility than most of us on Wall Street seem to possess; we don’t know what the future will bring we have no idea of the random events that occur to derail our overconfident forecasts.

Treasury 138