CFO Dive

FEBRUARY 26, 2024

Data on the job market, and consumer and producer prices, suggest the Fed may need to keep the main interest rate at a 40-year high longer than markets anticipated.

Forecasting 184

Forecasting Marketing 184

Barry Ritholtz

JANUARY 31, 2024

At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm (January 31, 2024 ) Investors don’t like recessions. In this episode, we discuss how to use labor data to forecast recessions. Claudia Sahm : Recessions aren’t supposed to be forecastable. But how can they tell if one’s coming? Claudia Sahm : Absolutely.

Forecasting 119

Forecasting Economics Marketing 119

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 19, 2022

The link was to James Mackintosh’s column “ Five Not-Quite-Impossible Things the Market Believes.” But rational people can reasonably disagree on anything market-related — after all, someone has to be on the other side of your trade. As to what the market “knows:” Stop Anthropomorphizing Mr. Market.

Marketing 128

Marketing Profit and Loss Forecasting Construction 128

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 21, 2023

He has a great ability to identify a variant perception versus the Wall Street consensus and express that view in a deeply researched market position. I share that caveat because making a bet and staying with it, is very different than making a forecast.

Forecasting 98

Forecasting Marketing Sales 98

Barry Ritholtz

MAY 19, 2023

Only 5 stocks driving markets?! Equal-weighted Nasdaq100 up 17% since the June lows for the market because “it’s only 5 stocks”? How bad at math do you need to be to think that it’s only 5 stocks driving this market? But people have been forecasting an imminent recession for 18 months — and we still have yet to have one.

Marketing 115

Marketing Math Forecasting 115

CFO Dive

AUGUST 8, 2023

Many economists have recently scuttled recession forecasts even as most small businesses still complain about persistent inflation and a tight labor market.

Forecasting 239

Forecasting Marketing 239

Barry Ritholtz

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. It is especially true for strategists and forecasters at large brokers and banks. Similarly, there are numerous problems with forecasting. Even the most well-ordered, thoughtful forecasts turn to mush when randomness strikes.

Forecasting 138

Forecasting Entertainment Investments Economics 138

Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

 At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? A 500% move in the stock market. Explain your dad’s thinking about how war plus inflation equals a stock bull market.

Marketing 126

Marketing Forecasting Numbers Technology 126

CFO News Room

FEBRUARY 4, 2022

The share-price decline would wipe more than $175 billion from the tech giant’s market capitalization once markets open Thursday and could spell its worst daily performance since it started trading in 2012, according to FactSet. Eli Lilly reported quarterly profit and revenue that beat forecasts. ConocoPhillips reported a $2.6

Profit and Loss 130

Profit and Loss Marketing Concentration Forecasting 130

CFO News Room

FEBRUARY 5, 2022

lakh crore from the market, while net borrowing will be at Rs 11.2 Bond yields touched a 30-month high on Tuesday after the government announced a higher-than-expected gross market borrowing of Rs 14.95 lakh crore from the market, while net borrowing will be at Rs 11.2 The government will borrow Rs 14.95 By Manish M Suvarna.

Budgeting 130

Budgeting Marketing Benchmarking Planning 130

Future CFO

SEPTEMBER 7, 2023

Atradius has recently upgraded its global GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 2.4%, which is a slowdown from 2022 but a significant improvement on earlier predictions. In addition, the firm posted a global GDP growth forecast of 2.0% Emerging market economies (EMEs) will fare better, with forecast growth of 3.9% for 2024. “We

Forecasting 97

Forecasting Economics Numbers Banking 97

Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Low Stakes : The most successful market timers are often those people who do not have actual assets at risk.

Marketing 121

Marketing Math Investments Forecasting 121

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 5, 2024

Last Wednesday (August 28), the market waited with bated breath for Nvidia’s earning call, scheduled for after the market closed. This dance between companies and investors, playing out in expected and actual earnings, is a feature of every earnings season, especially so in the United States, and it has always fascinated me.

Marketing 121

Marketing Valuation Profit and Loss Forecasting 121

Fpanda Club

APRIL 18, 2022

Marketing teams, being among FP&A’s counterparties, are usually considered to be the most creative people in the company. To perform these functions marketing, as a discipline, possesses a wide range of tools and techniques that can be used to analyze data, verify hypotheses and communicate information.

Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) 130

Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) Marketing Finance Forecasting 130

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2023

That recovery notwithstanding, uncertainties about inflation and the economy remained unresolved, and those uncertainties became part of the market story in the third quarter of 2023. The Markets in the Third Quarter Coming off a year of rising rates in 2022, interest rates have continued to command center stage in 2023.

Marketing 109

Marketing Treasury Valuation Investments 109

CFO News Room

FEBRUARY 4, 2022

. “Everyone’s back to playing leap frog over each other to see how hawkish they can get about what the Fed’s going to do, when the Fed probably doesn’t even know itself,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. Markets could remain volatile in the coming week. More volatility.

Marketing 130

Marketing Healthcare Pharmaceutical Communication 130

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The labor market, while still remarkably resilient, has also started to show signs of stress.

Economics 88

Economics Marketing Forecasting Valuation 88

CFO News Room

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

In my first two posts on Facebook, I noted that its most recent earnings report, and the market reaction to it, offers an opportunity for us to talk about bigger issues. Not only will you find financial statements easier to disentangle, but you will also be able to develop a framework for converting these numbers to forecasts fairly easily.

Marketing 130

Marketing Valuation Advertising Numbers 130

Barry Ritholtz

OCTOBER 24, 2024

At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. In other words, if you were forecasting 10-year returns of 3% annually, you are also forecasting an economic shitstorm of rare and historic proportions. If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot.

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Economics Treasury Technology 130

Global Finance

OCTOBER 31, 2024

Global Finance ’s top 50 emerging markets honorees navigated their individual obstacles in their own unique way. The institutions in our 50 Safest Emerging Markets Banks rankings are facing a challenging operating environment from rising geopolitical tensions, potential disruptions of global trade, and commodity price volatility.

Marketing 85

Marketing Banking Forecasting Finance 85

Navigator SAP

OCTOBER 7, 2022

Market changes occur much more quickly in the modern era, making it nearly impossible to forecast supply and demand through historic data alone. And trying to keep up with the dizzying pace of the market can lead to low-quality batches of products—which can damage a company’s once-sterling reputation.

Forecasting 177

Forecasting Technology Marketing 177

Focus CFO

NOVEMBER 22, 2024

Heading into 2025, accurate sales forecasting is more critical than ever. Here are five key ways to align your sales forecasting and budgeting processes for success in the year ahead. Here are five key ways to align your sales forecasting and budgeting processes for success in the year ahead.

Forecasting 52

Forecasting Budgeting Sales CFO 52

CFO News Room

FEBRUARY 4, 2023

According to Dow Jones, the consensus forecast calls for 187,000 new nonfarm jobs in January, down from 223,000 that were created in December. Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies, expects 260,000 jobs were added in January, but he said the number could be even higher. The employment report will be released at 8:30 a.m.

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Education Numbers Marketing 130

CFO News Room

JANUARY 26, 2023

One of the big news stories of last week was Jack Dorsey stepping down as CEO of Twitter, and the market’s response to that news was to push up Twitter’s stock price by almost 10%. In contrast, consider Yahoo!,

Marketing 130

Marketing Valuation Manufacturing Investments 130

CFO News Room

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Twilio — Twilio’s stock plunged nearly 36%, a day after the company issued a weaker-than-expected sales forecast. On Friday, Cowen downgraded the communication tools company to market perform from outperform, citing deteriorating macro trends. PayPal — PayPal slid 5% after lowering its annual revenue growth forecast.

Profit and Loss 130

Profit and Loss Forecasting Sales Economics 130

CFO News Room

DECEMBER 24, 2022

Economists have been forecasting a recession for months now, and most see it starting early next year. The central bank helped stimulate lending by taking interest rates to zero, and boosted market liquidity by adding trillions of dollars in assets to its balance sheet. It forecasts additional rate hikes, up to about 5.1%

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Economics Marketing Banking 130

Barry Ritholtz

JANUARY 8, 2024

Instead, I prefer to consider market history and recent data, and ask “What are the possible and probable outcomes for this year?” Toward that end, here are a dozen bullish and bearish factors I suspect are most likely to influence how the markets will progress this year. Hence, why forecasting is so fraught with error.

Forecasting 132

Forecasting Concentration Marketing Construction 132

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 11, 2024

These assumptions are rooted in Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs), which project how different assets might perform in the future. Beyond market variables, clients bring their own behaviors and preferences into play. However, for many advisors, using these assumptions isn't always comfortable.

Planning 77

Planning Marketing Forecasting Securities 77

CFO News Room

JANUARY 16, 2023

For that reason, the inflation number has become a major event for financial markets, and now some traders are betting it will show inflation slowing even more than economists forecast. “The market is looking at it as glass half full. Market expectations are just 20% for a 50 basis point hike. of a percentage point.

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Marketing Banking Numbers 130

CFO News Room

DECEMBER 13, 2022

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, November 2, 2022. … The more markets move, it might mean the Fed has to work harder to convince the markets there’s more to be done.”

Banking 130

Banking Forecasting Marketing Investments 130

Barry Ritholtz

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. There is no great forecaster of the future—so dots to be taken with a big, big grain of salt.” To wit: The Dot Plot.

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Economics Marketing 130

Barry Ritholtz

MAY 6, 2024

You probably have a good idea how things turned out: At the end of 1998, the Dow was at 9,181, just 37 points off the forecast. Those two young men in Chicago in 1974 had made one of the most spectacular market calls in history.” To say nothing of a contrarian but accurate extrapolation of future market returns).

Forecasting 116

Forecasting Investments Numbers Marketing 116

E78 Partners

OCTOBER 30, 2024

Middle-market companies face increasing pressure to maintain their value edge in this competitive financial landscape. To drive growth, improve profitability, and enhance decision-making, companies can leverage the power of refined operational disciplines – Forecasting, Planning, and Analytics (our take on FP&A).

Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) 59

Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) Marketing Forecasting Financial Modeling 59

CFO News Room

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Abercrombie & Fitch – Shares of the retail stock jumped 19% after the apparel retailer beat Wall Street’s revenue forecasts for the third quarter and posted unexpected quarterly profit. Dick’s raised its full-year financial forecast as well. Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.

Profit and Loss 130

Profit and Loss Forecasting Entertainment Retail 130

CFO News Room

DECEMBER 18, 2022

in the premarket after forecasting a slowdown in orders for new homes, stemming from higher mortgage rates. The home builder also reported lower-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter, although revenue was slightly above analyst forecasts. Discovery lost 1.2% in the premarket. Lennar (LEN) – Lennar slid 2.6% in premarket action.

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Valuation Marketing Planning 130

CFO News Room

NOVEMBER 13, 2022

Bumble – Shares of the company known for its dating platforms added 10% even after Bumble issued a weak current quarter revenue forecast and missed expectations. Fair Isaac also issued guidance that beat a StreetAccount forecast. after it beat expectations for the quarter and raised its full-year forecast.

Profit and Loss 130

Profit and Loss Pharmaceutical Forecasting Valuation 130

CFO News Room

JANUARY 27, 2023

The company also forecasted a loss for the current quarter. Silvergate Capital — The crypto-focused bank slid more than 22% after it suspended dividend payments on its Series A preferred stock, in an effort to preserve capital as it navigates recent crypto market volatility. per share, according to Refinitiv.

Profit and Loss 130

Profit and Loss Forecasting Manufacturing Marketing 130