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In the first five posts, I have looked at the macro numbers that drive global markets, from interest rates to risk premiums, but it is not my preferred habitat. A key tool in both endeavors is a hurdlerate a rate of return that you determine as your required return for business and investment decisions.
Data: Trickle to a Flood! It is perhaps a reflection of my age that I remember when getting data to do corporate financialanalysis or valuation was a chore. That said, to use mean reversion in analysis or investing, you need to know what these averages are, either over time or across companies, and data can help in that pursuit.
Thus, looking at only the companies in the S&P 500 may give you more reliable data, with fewer missing observations, but your results will reflect what large market cap companies in any sector or industry do, rather than what is typical for that industry.
As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop. The Swiss 10-year government bond rate, in July 2023, of 1.02% meets both criteria, making it the risk-free rate in Swiss Francs.
It is perhaps a reflection of my age that I remember when getting data to do corporate financialanalysis or valuation was a chore. That said, to use mean reversion in analysis or investing, you need to know what these averages are, either over time or across companies, and data can help in that pursuit.
I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms.
The other is pragmatic , since it is almost impossible to value a company or business, without a clear sense of how risk exposure varies across the world, since for many companies, either the inputs to or their production processes are in foreign markets or the output is outside domestic markets.
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