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So along those lines, there are some venture firms that don’t really seem to care a lot about valuations and others seem to focus on a little bit. Is valuation significant, or is it, hey, we’re going to make 100 investments and if two or three workout, the valuations are irrelevant? How do you fall in that spectrum?
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. That is not being reflected in valuations from a top down standpoint. One is, if you think about EM, equity valuations versus the s and p, the EM index is trading at, you know, 10 to 11 times forward pe. You can get growth at extremely compelling valuations.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. You really like the long time where you have to hold to make up that valuation whole is so long that you just really shouldn’t be involved. In 2000, right.
But there’s always gotta be some element of the valuation really being compelling. But even in the book I wrote in 2014, you could see that the focus on competitive advantage can never be absolute, you always have to take valuation into consideration. But maybe second to valuation as a primary consideration.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. What’s been keeping you entertained? I didn’t know what any of these terms meant.
He has a very interesting approach to thinking about market valuations and strategies and when to deploy capital, when to go with the crowd, when to lean against the crowd, and has amassed and excellent track record. Second part of our framework is valuation fundamental work. Well, that means valuations are probably too high.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We built a company that was focused on valuation, initially, actually targeting corporate strategic planning departments.
I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? What’s been been keeping you entertained?
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. Some people look at a casino as entertainment and hey, we’re gonna spend X dollars, pick a number, 500, 2000, whatever it is.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. What’s keeping you entertained these days? They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. How durable is that shift, given how large that gap has gotten in valuation between US stocks and the rest of the developed world?
That’s where you got your entertainment. I got the sense that, so Churnin takes 51% for a fairly modest valuation, 10 or $15 million. Is really easy to focus on what he does best, which is the creative side, the entertainment side, yeah. That, that gives Barstool a half a billion dollar valuation.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. I think I mentioned earlier, I have like a four-and-a-half-year-old that keeps me really entertain.
Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. How are we doing in literacy versus math versus science? Think about the incredible growth of U.S. technology, that was something to ride for a while. Where are we?
RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before. If you’re giving up that 1% big fat yield in 2019, 2021, let’s say you give up three years of 1% and get zero, how does the math work over the subsequent couple of years?
And I was a math nerd as a kid. 00:44:11 [Speaker Changed] Kathy would may have her own valuation, so, but I can’t replicate it myself. Why is there such a spread between US domestic and overseas companies in terms of you’re a value investor in terms of straight up valuation? What have you been streaming?
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. And one of the worst performing factors has been valuation. And I think that’s wrong because valuation does matter.
It was about $170 million valuation. So here’s the math, Barry. If you have seven $50 incremental year, then every 10 year old in America, when they enter into the fifth or sixth grade and the teacher says, Hey, today we’re gonna talk about math or compounding or stocks or capitalism, they’ll say, open up.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
And we’ve automated the, the appraisal process for valuation, both intrinsic value, meaning like, where would we pay it, where would we buy it, and where is the fair market price that asset from that level, from price and from consumer behavior now. We ask all of our guests starting with what have you been entertained with these days?
But thankfully, the next decade, things really accelerated in terms of the growth of the company and growth in the valuation, things like that. The math never seems to work out. All right, so let’s jump to our favorite questions that we ask all of our guests, starting with, tell us what kept you entertained during the pandemic?
Literally the first check-in to Robinhood, which went public in 2021 at about a $34 billion valuation. RITHOLTZ: He was the first (inaudible) in round B at the higher valuation. Is it about the valuation? Back then I was Wallstrip was like a 400K valuation. RITHOLTZ: Valuation didn’t make much of a difference.
00:24:49 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk a little bit about valuation in the public markets. Does that valuation difference in the public markets extend to private markets as well? Does that valuation difference in the public markets extend to private markets as well? Hence the valuation gap.
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