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Michael: So, it sounds like part of the challenge was, you live in a large company environment where, as is common for a lot of them, they organized study groups of top advisors, of top producers, of those that are doing well and growing well, and driving the business profitably. In fact, we probably would have been much more profitable.
I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. The next question that you alluded to, which is really interesting about revenue and profits, how solid in inflation hedge are equities? BITTERLY MICHELL: … was — no, no.
And I found that subsegment really interesting because we did studies on kind of decision making biases, human biases like loss aversion and other biases that impact otherwise what should be rational decisions and make them less than rational. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. Absolutely.
So I think that resiliency piece, never giving up, never giving in, redefining, Barry, success as going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm, I think that’s everything. And like every business, they want revenue and they’d like to have a surplus profit. BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. And so it is important that at least you’re able to entertain that. Peter is unbelievably brilliant, right?
I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? What’s been been keeping you entertained?
That’s where you got your entertainment. 00:17:16 [Speaker Changed] And, and let’s be blunt and honest, Dave Portnoy is incredibly entertaining, even if that persona is an exaggeration of who he is, but no one wants him doing the payroll or the 00:17:30 [Speaker Changed] Healthcare. Was it a loss?
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. Some people look at a casino as entertainment and hey, we’re gonna spend X dollars, pick a number, 500, 2000, whatever it is. And it, it snowballs.
It’s a matter of making better decisions and being more profitable. That’s an amazing lesson in life, right, to take failure and losses as business as usual. RITHOLTZ: Someone once said it’s not how often you lose, but it’s how big your losses are, which is really interesting. RITHOLTZ: It’s alpha.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. They announced a $640 million loss and ouch. But if, if it has a history of not being profitable, you you really want to exclude that. The visibility on earnings they grew but they stayed profitable as, as they grew. So big loss. A 99% loss on 1.1% So I took that. Real money.
But as a private equity owner, again, first of all, you do invest heavily of your own money in the transactions, plus you have additional ownership through, you know, the carried interest, the profits interests. You got 60 percent of losses ahead of you. RITHOLTZ: So it’s different math then I need 100x winner versus 99?
.” RITHOLTZ: So people also should realize, for those of you who’ve never traded futures, it’s not like options where essentially you could put up your losses in advance and all they could do is go to zero. RITHOLTZ: Put up your losses in advance. And so it’s one of these things that math works.
And so, so we sort of felt pretty stupid for a while because we did a lot of losing trades in 2006 that were the, you know, that obviously didn’t come to fruition until the actual people could see the losses. So in mortgages, the borrower can stop paying maybe a year to two years before the lenders actually book a loss.
Ends up turning about $27 million of swap premiums into 2 billion plus in profit. I mean, you’re talking about, I don’t, I could do the math, it’s like a 10,000% return in like three weeks. HOFFMAN: And he’s talking about, you know, the seat back entertainment should be a streaming platform, right?
So when I was at this very fancy private school that I was at as a kid, I did math because it gave me a huge amount of free time to do the things I really cared about. But when I got to Cambridge, you know, the math was sort of serious there. So, you know, I took my math into statistics and things. Am I getting right?
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. And there was people, Physics didn’t have, people, psychology didn’t have math, economics was kind of the right mix. The math doesn’t math. That was too abstract. Yeah, I’m gonna vote.
So it really leads to the question, what makes a form of entertainment have this sort of cultural resonance? It’s a power law, this is very slightly technical for yours truly, the English major, not technical for you, the math guy. Humans are rational profit-maximizers, we’re not. You mentioned Lucas got lucky.
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