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This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4.
Call it ” ‘ America’s Enormous Math Mistake’s Mistake. Or is anything economic Phil Gramm touches simply destined to be a dumpster fire of lies, foolishness, and incompetency? For the record, Census published its first study on the valuation of so-called “in-kind transfer benefits” in 1982.
As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. Barry Ritholtz : So let’s break that into two halves, starting with valuation. Explain why P/E isn’t the best way to measure valuation. We are looking historically at ideas that make economic sense, right?
A bachelor’s in economics from Northwestern and then an MBA from University of Chicago. And so I kind of leveraged that when I went to Morningstar because they’re very focused on quality, the whole concept of economic moats, but also about buying companies when they’re trading at a discount to intrinsic value.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. You really like the long time where you have to hold to make up that valuation whole is so long that you just really shouldn’t be involved. In 2000, right.
It was about $170 million valuation. So here’s the math, Barry. If you have seven $50 incremental year, then every 10 year old in America, when they enter into the fifth or sixth grade and the teacher says, Hey, today we’re gonna talk about math or compounding or stocks or capitalism, they’ll say, open up.
We’ll get to where you work at JP Morgan, but economics bachelor’s from Columbia MBA from Harvard. So I decided to become an economics major and a psychology minor. So the intersection of psychology and economics became really interesting. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting.
SEIDES: Yeah, I wouldn’t measure it in terms of economic returns. RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before. What’s the valuation? So, it cost the firm $320,000, well worth every penny? How would you have done?
You graduate Harvard in 1990, with an Economics and Computer Science degree, perfect for the explosion of the Internet; a PhD from MIT and Information Technology in ‘96. So along those lines, there are some venture firms that don’t really seem to care a lot about valuations and others seem to focus on a little bit.
Its founder walked away with a giant buyout package even as its valuation crashed. And I am a lover of math. I was a math nerd in high school. Math is one of my favorite tools. That company is now mired in an enormous financial scandal. The company whose filing paper said it was going to change the world.
He has a very interesting approach to thinking about market valuations and strategies and when to deploy capital, when to go with the crowd, when to lean against the crowd, and has amassed and excellent track record. But generally starts with the economic cycle. Where are you in the economic cycle? I, I love that area.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We built a company that was focused on valuation, initially, actually targeting corporate strategic planning departments.
So a variety of risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. RITHOLTZ: Right. And that’s all sentiment. DAVIS: That’s exactly it.
And while there are myriad factors that go into this calculation (from the client’s risk tolerance to their life expectancy), market and economic conditions play an important role, as portfolio returns in the early years of retirement can play an outsized role in the ultimate sustainability of a client’s retirement income plan (i.e.,
Because the economics of profitability start showing up particularly when you’re starting to hire other advisors and staff and team. So, last year, valuations were high, interest rates were low. You really have to start crystalizing an org chart and who does what, and clarifying roles and responsibilities. Is it at 1.5%?
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. And I think it partly depends on the economic comfort in which you grew up. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. What is that? The second is excess returns.
But thankfully, the next decade, things really accelerated in terms of the growth of the company and growth in the valuation, things like that. The math never seems to work out. We’ve been at it for coming on a decade, had only a couple 100,000 customers. Is that way fair way to start? RITHOLTZ: Right. RITHOLTZ: Sure.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. 00:44:11 [Speaker Changed] Kathy would may have her own valuation, so, but I can’t replicate it myself. Why is there such a spread between US domestic and overseas companies in terms of you’re a value investor in terms of straight up valuation?
Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. RIEDER: And all of a sudden, you change the economic paradigm so darn fast. How are we doing in literacy versus math versus science? Think about the incredible growth of U.S.
So in this, in this context of, of a mortgage now being clear to everyone that this default risk is present, it’s real, and it’s hard to price because following the borrower’s economic profile, there, there are defaults that are related to just life events, but there’s also defaults related to a macroeconomic event.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. And one of the worst performing factors has been valuation. And I think that’s wrong because valuation does matter.
But let’s start with your background in your career, applied mathematics and economics from Brown and then a Harvard MBA. 00:31:40 [Speaker Changed] So there’s the emotions and then there’s the math, right? We’ll, we’ll get into that in a little bit. 00:01:58 [Speaker Changed] I’m just old.
But plenty of valuation measures, it has no applicability for price-to-sales. ASNESS: Well, first of all, I’m going to somewhat disappoint you saying we do not take very big bets on views like timing asset classes based on valuation. My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. It can apply to earnings.
00:13:05 [Speaker Changed] But you are also on the advisory board for the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy and Research. So that’s why I think doing it as an individual always gave me much more reward and also, quite frankly, economic success than doing it as a, as a fund investor. Taiwan semiconductor, yes.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. There’s very few, I would argue probably no consistent predictors of, of any sort of economic or market cyclicality. And I just caught the bug.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
RITHOLTZ: So here’s the question about 2020 and we could talk a little bit about the pandemic, when you have an event from outside the market, sort of feels less like the dot-coms and the valuation issue, and more like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, it’s totally outside of the system. SIEGEL: Right. RITHOLTZ: Right.
She leads the company’s 50-person team of engineers, attorneys, and analysts, and is a member of the firm’s valuation & investment committees and board of directors. Before co-founding Legalist at 20, Eva studied economics at Harvard College. The firm specializes in litigation finance, which is non-correlated with equities.
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