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This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4. Be tax-aware.
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My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. Mortgage rates typically trade a spread to the 10 year Treasury yield. With the 10 year at 4.2%
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They are the very businesses that make America’s cities, towns and urban centers lively and vibrant and interesting — and make our communities culturally, socially and economically strong. Doing The Math. Most of the SMBs we asked aren’t new to the world. It may not be so clear-cut.
I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. And, and that is, you know, the treasuries were so low that you could be, have a 4%, 5% yield, even 3% on a real estate investment and still have a nice cushion over treasuries. I have no family history.
So a variety of risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. And when you think about translating the S&P 500 PE to an implied equity risk premium by looking at the 10 year treasury yield, you’re 200 basis points below what it’s been for the last 10 years. DAVIS: So on the bond side, we have both. RITHOLTZ: Right.
A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. What is that? The second is excess returns.
Because the economics of profitability start showing up particularly when you’re starting to hire other advisors and staff and team. And I said, “Look, you’ve got to look at where we are with valuations, and you have to look at where the 10-year Treasury is at. And so, we pivoted to more of a service team.
SEIDES: Yeah, I wouldn’t measure it in terms of economic returns. So you go back a couple of years and you could say, “Well, what return is available buying a treasury?” ” And it turned out, if you looked at the market at that time, it was, I’ll call it 1%, five-year treasury or 10-year treasury.
But since you mentioned getting return on the risk you take, how do you think about duration when the three-month Treasury is more or less the same or better than the 10-year? RIEDER: And all of a sudden, you change the economic paradigm so darn fast. RITHOLTZ: We’ll talk a little bit about the inverted yield curve later.
STEVEN KLINSKY, FOUNDER, CEO AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, NEW MOUNTAIN CAPITAL: I come from the Detroit area of Michigan as a public school kid, went to University of Michigan and studied both economics and philosophy. September 13, 1981, I think the 10-year Treasury was 15.84 RITHOLTZ: Sorry about the theft of that last (inaudible).
And I was a math nerd as a kid. He developed the Ginnie Mae contract, which at one time was a big thing in treasury bond contract. So my grandmother realizing that this was her source of income, wanted to be sure she had the right stocks, and she got a trial subscription for 29 bucks for 13 weeks of the value line.
Not only did he serve on the Brady Commission looking at the ’87 crash, but his history of investing and trading and public service, both at the Fed and the Chicago Board of Trade and Treasury Department, really unparalleled, as well as just a pretty amazing track record as an investor and trader. We don’t want to participate.
We participated in that with treasury and FHFA and the regulators, the White House. So as, as, as a person that’s just investing for an economic return, you can’t compete with that, right? Economic occupancy is who’s paying the rent. So we, we met a lot of of interesting people in DC and it was the whole gamut.
The economic dislocation, the health risks, just the mayhem that took place, but from the perspective of a number of corporate CEOs, Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital, the hedge fund that had a couple of amazing trades based on this. HOFFMAN: So obviously, I’ve — you know, economically minded from the jump.
So whether you’re trying to get managed futures from an active manager or, you know, two months Treasuries, T bills, like the whole spectrum is now available in lose to 3,000 ETFs we are trading here in the U.S. NADIG: Well, I mean, there’s like TLT, with the big Treasury funds, LQD and HYG. RITHOLTZ: Beat the 10-year.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. There’s very few, I would argue probably no consistent predictors of, of any sort of economic or market cyclicality. And I just caught the bug.
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Ed Hyman on Using Economic Data Opportunistically , is below. So you have all of this very pragmatic experience as opposed to getting a PhD in economics, which tends to be a little more abstract and academic. I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
I started out math and, and physics, and in high school I was a rock star in math and physics. And it covers the spectrum of fixed income from treasuries here to high yield there, and everything in between. I’m like, ah, we get six and a half, seven on the treasury. But those guys are great, right?
In fact, I think Secretary of the Treasury at the time said the market will work out these things and they will not become a problem. MORGENSON: And it was, so Steve was a candidate that had economic ideas, okay? Let’s just let the market take its course. And so, you know where you stand. RITHOLTZ: I can imagine.
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council, President of Goldman Sachs , is below. You’re doing a lot of math in your head on the Fly. I’m doing, I’m doing an awful lot of math in my head on the fly. Hank Paulson had left to go become treasury secretary.
Professor Stephanie Kelton teaches Public Policy and Economics at SUNY Stony Brook. You get a bachelor’s, a BA and a BS in Economics and Business at California Sacramento, then University of Cambridge, master’s in Philosophy and Economics, then a PhD in economics at the New School. I happened to pick that one.
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