Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

Starting with gross margins, and computing the number for all non-financial service firms, we report the distribution of gross margins across publicly traded companies at the start of 2023, again based upon gross income and sales in the most recent twelve months: While the median gross margin across all publicly traded global firms is about 30%.,

Profit and Loss 52

Profit and Loss Investments Hurdle Rate Accounting 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

Last week, was my data week, where I download and analyze data on all publicly traded companies, listed anywhere in the world, and I will post extensively on what the numbers look like after a most tumultuous year. As we approach the turn of the calendar year, I have my own set of rituals that prepare me for the new year.

Valuation 52

Valuation Corporate Finance Finance Investments 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year. between US large cap and small cap, 0.70

Currencies 52

Currencies Investments Marketing Treasury 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

In the picture below, I use this process to estimate an equity risk premium of 4.72% for the S&P 500 on January 1, 2021: Download spreadsheet to compute ERP It is true that my estimates of earnings and cash flows in the future are driving my premium, and that the premium will be lower (higher) if I have under (over) estimated those numbers.

Treasury 52

Treasury Investments Valuation Marketing 52

CFO News Room

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

Because the economics of profitability start showing up particularly when you’re starting to hire other advisors and staff and team. ” look at the Monte Carlo simulations, look at what is the hurdle rate. And so, that can move the numbers, as well. And so, that can move the numbers, as well.

Restructuring 130

Restructuring Planning Marketing Accounting 130

Musings on Markets

MARCH 8, 2023

In the second, Warren Buffet used some heated language to describe those who opposed buybacks, calling them “economic illiterates” and “silver tongued demagogues “. Going back in time to last year’s inflation reduction act, buybacks were explicitly targeted for taxes, with the perspective that they were damaging US companies.

Hurdle Rate 102

Hurdle Rate Corporate Finance Investments Finance 102

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop. Ultimately, a government that chooses to default is making a political choice, as much as it is an economic one.

Investments 98

Investments Currencies Treasury Hurdle Rate 98

CFO News Room

JANUARY 7, 2023

Mean reversion : I am not a knee-jerk believer in mean reversion, but the tendency for numbers to move back towards averages is a strong one. Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all.

Marketing 130

Marketing Valuation Corporate Finance Financial Analysis 130

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

Mean reversion : I am not a knee-jerk believer in mean reversion, but the tendency for numbers to move back towards averages is a strong one. Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all.

Valuation 52

Valuation Corporate Finance Financial Analysis Leverage 52

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Furthermore, do they optimize they debt ratios to deliver the lowest hurdle rates. In the late 1990s, it was an economic recession that was the precipitating factor, but the last three increases in delinquencies have had their origins in other forces. Do companies optimize financing mix?

Corporate Finance 52

Corporate Finance Finance Marketing Banking 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

In closing, I also want to dispense with the notion that data is objective and that numbers-focused people have no bias. Finally, it is worth noting that, notwithstanding the travails of last year, the number of firms in the data universe increased from 44,394 firms at the start of 2020 to 46,579 firms, a 4.9%

Valuation 52

Valuation Currencies Numbers Corporate Finance 52

Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

CHANCELLOR: And I actually — one of my last projects at GMO was to do a sort of — to look at what was going on from economic sentiment perspective, looking at various different measures in a bull bear ratio, amount of margin loans in system. Essentially, that’s what interest rates allow. back in sort of 2012.

Valuation 59

Valuation Finance Investments Banking 59

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In particular, there are wide variations in how risk is measured, and once measured, across companies and countries, and those variations can lead to differences in expected returns and hurdle rates, central to both corporate finance and investing judgments.

Hurdle Rate 122

Hurdle Rate Concentration Investments Finance 122

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The cost of debt is lower than the cost of equity : If you review my sixth data update on hurdle rates , and go through my cost of capital calculation, there is one inescapable conclusion. At every level of debt, the cost of equity is generally much higher than the cost of debt for a simple reason. to3.5%) during the year.

Hurdle Rate 76

Hurdle Rate Marketing Investments IFRS 76

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

One is curiosity , as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. The graph below shows the sovereign CDS levels, by country: Source: Bloomberg ( July 2023 data ) There are three things to note, as you browse these numbers.

Currencies 52

Currencies Hurdle Rate Valuation Marketing 52

Barry Ritholtz

MAY 21, 2024

So it’s got this math angle where it, you know, it’s all numbers, but then there’s this behavioral angle and psychological angle where, you know, it’s, it’s kind of a fun problem to tackle. It’s kind of a silly number, but people are going to think you’re smart or dumb based on that number.

Finance 59

Finance Marketing Numbers Investments 59

Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

Honest back testing, really looking at the numbers versus exaggerating returns and, and making up the claim that something’s live when it’s not. There’s very few, I would argue probably no consistent predictors of, of any sort of economic or market cyclicality. 12, 14 even that not a lot of numbers.

Leverage 59

Leverage Investments Marketing Math 59

Barry Ritholtz

DECEMBER 26, 2023

And 00:06:38 [Speaker Changed] Door number one was much better than door number three in, in the circumstances. When we talk about breadth, we’re talking about the numbers of advancers versus decliners. So it’s like, yeah. It, it’s, it’s a totally, it’s, it’s very different.

Marketing 64

Marketing Leadership Finance Investments 64

Musings on Markets

JULY 24, 2024

In the section below, I highlight the differences on four major dimensions - political structure, exposure to war/violence, extent of corruption and protections for legal and property rights, with the focus firmly on the economic risks rather than on social consequences. That is easier said than done, for two reasons.

Hurdle Rate 76

Hurdle Rate Currencies Valuation Economics 76