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I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide what projects to invest in, and investors attempt to estimate business value.
That year, I computed these industry-level statistics for five variables that I found myself using repeatedly in my valuations, and once I had them, I could not think of a good reason to keep them secret. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Historical Growth in Revenues & Earnings 1.
I was reminded of that paper a few weeks ago, when Fitch downgraded the US, from AAA to AA+, a relatively minor shift, but one with significant psychological consequences for investors in the largest economy in the world, whose currency still dominates global transactions.
To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. It is true that the Turkish company will face more risk because of its location, but that is an issue separate from currency.
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After all, we get our restaurant choices from Yelp reviews, our movie recommendations from Rotten Tomatoes, and we have even built crypto currencies around the notion of crowd-checking transactions. Rather than replicate that data, my macroeconomic datasets relate to four key variables that I use in corporate finance and valuation.
After all, we get our restaurant choices from Yelp reviews, our movie recommendations from Rotten Tomatoes, and we have even built crypto currencies around the notion of crowd-checking transactions. Rather than replicate that data, my macroeconomic datasets relate to four key variables that I use in corporate finance and valuation.
S&P, Moody's and Fitch, in addition to rating companies for default risk, also rate governments, and they rate them both on local currency debt, as well as foreign currency debt. I know that the currency choice is the source of angst for many analysts, and I think unnecessarily so. I have my reasons.
And so we go back to the basics of what our job should be, risk underwriting, risk assessment, asset prices are different from asset valuation. I mean the valuation is the future cash flow discounted at a risk-free rate plus a risk premium. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk a little bit about valuations relative to risk and reward.
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