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As has been the case for the past several quarters, the prevailing characteristic of the economy is one of bifurcation, with interest rate-sensitive sectors remaining in a recession (as evidenced by the manufacturing sector's 16-month-long contraction), while the services sector (which accounts for nearly 80% of U.S. GDP) continues to expand.
But at the end of the day, the companies we invest in are bottoms up or based on bottoms up credit analytics that we have the conviction and we’ll return par plus accrued through through a cycle. And if they don’t, we’re happy to own them at the valuation that we are creating that company act.
And up until that moment in time, we didn’t spend a lot of time on creditrisk in mortgages. We didn’t really have to model creditrisk because that was, that risk was taken by the agencies. But in these private labels, you had the, the market was taking the creditrisk.
Standout transactions in 2024 include a loan to LG Energy to construct a plant in Poland for the manufacture of batteries used in electric vehicles. Scotias credit due diligence processes address environmental and climate-related risks across its lending portfolio and are integrated into its credit-risk policies.
At the same time, he said, a significant number of Western economies over the past several decades have outsourced as much manufacturing as they could to China to streamline costs. As a result, he said, Western economies have effectively offloaded the risk of economic contraction to China. It’s an awful situation for the Chinese.”.
And you know, it’s the same thing when valuation gets outta control too. It will come home to roost at some point, but doesn’t mean the valuation can’t get worse. Valuations are tight, they’re tight for a reason. You have to get compensated for each risk. We, we continue to see that left and right.
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