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Planning, budgeting and forecasting for a business are three distinct financial management tools used in business, each serving a different purpose. Key differences between planning, budgeting and forecasting for a business Here are key difference between planning, budgeting and forecasting for a business.
Create a Revenue Forecast: Estimate your expected income sources, including salaries, sales revenue, investment income, grants, or any other sources of revenue. Categorize Expenses: Group your expenses into categories, such as housing, transportation, utilities, entertainment, and so on.
David Snyderman has put together an incredible career in fixed income, alternative credit, and really just an amazing way of looking at risk and trade structure and how to figure out probabilistic potential outcomes rather than playing the usual forecasting and macro tourist game. They have an incredible track record.
I don’t recall seeing anybody’s forecast for the year ahead saying, Hey, really inexpensive AI from China, deep seek is gonna completely disrupt everything. Speaking of, of entertainment. What’s keeping you entertained? It’s not just entertaining, but it, you know, clears the cobweb out little bit.
And so, with this gave me exposure to everything from investment banking to retail, looking at like checking account campaigns, like how do you get more assets in the door to creditrisk. What did you do to entertain them? And ultimately, to make a very long story short, I fell in love with derivatives. BITTERLY MICHELL: Yeah.
And you had to take on significant duration risk and creditrisk just to earn a couple percentage points. I have alternatives because I can go out and buy a money market fund at five and a quarter percent and I don’t have to take a lot of risk.” DAVIS: Yes, we try not to be in the short-term forecasting game.
But there are so many tools at your disposal, and let alone how much duration you’re taking, how much interest, how much creditrisk you’re taking, illiquidity, et cetera. And how do you make the decision, I’m not comfortable with this creditrisk relative to the return it’s going to throw off?
When you look at this present environment, do you think of yourselves more as bottom up credit pickers or, or do you look at the macro environment and say, Hey, we have to figure out what’s going on there? Also, 00:36:15 [Speaker Changed] You know, we’re bottoms up credit pickers. 00:37:26 [Speaker Changed] Huh.
Although quantitative facts and figures have provided objective numerical forecasts, we have also adjusted those expectations using experience and insight (judgement) to improve upon those forecasts. These figures suggest the high creditrisk exposure of UK in a global perspective. in 2016 to 1.8% Conclusion.
And up until that moment in time, we didn’t spend a lot of time on creditrisk in mortgages. We didn’t really have to model creditrisk because that was, that risk was taken by the agencies. But in these private labels, you had the, the market was taking the creditrisk.
Remember everybody forecasted it, right? We saw it shrink in late 22 Barry Ritholtz: To, to say if, if that’s what is the fallible recession forecast. That seems like a a no brainer trade for not taking creditrisk right now. It, I mean, last year was the, the recession, it was a massive recession.
And so I still believe, we still believe at PGM that investors are overpaying for creditrisk, whether it’s down the capital stack in a structured product, whether it’s, you know, single B versus a triple B as I think once again the recency bias aspect of it, right? One is that kind of broad kind of macro creditrisk.
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