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Now, we know from the academic literature that three years before the fraud, they tend to beat earnings benchmarks. Its going to change your equity, your retained earnings, your profits, your earnings per share, your EBIT, your EBITDAall these numbers would change. And its incredibly difficult.
I was reminded of that paper a few weeks ago, when Fitch downgraded the US, from AAA to AA+, a relatively minor shift, but one with significant psychological consequences for investors in the largest economy in the world, whose currency still dominates global transactions.
If you’re all interested in macro investing, trend following, commodities, currencies, fixed income, various types of quantitative strategies, and most important of all, risk management, you’re going to find this conversation to be absolutely fascinating. But on a relative basis, it was easier. RITHOLTZ: Right. TROPIN: Yeah.
Howe Institute, the Canadian dollar’s connection to commodity exports like oil means its volatility isn’t surprising, with some analysts expecting the currency to regain its strength this year. jobs data are all affecting the currency, but that strong economic performance in the country is a good sign.
They understand currencies. RITHOLTZ: Complacent ROE because the dollar is the reserve currency of the world, we don’t think about currencies, we don’t usually think about inflation except since the pandemic and thought about it in 40 years. BITTERLY MICHELL: … this isn’t a generalization, but they have a higher risk tolerance.
The local currency, the Kwanza, has lost about 37% of its value in the past 12 months as the consumer price index marched steadily to a record level in August. With the local currency pegged to the dollar, the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) aligns its monetary policy to the US Federal Reserve’s. Public debt increased to 73.9%
But when you look at emerging markets and when you look at value, the opportunity for alpha is much, much greater than it is in traditional large cap growth stocks in the US And a lot of managers in that space actually beat their benchmark. So value, growth and core has outperformed the benchmark or passive strategies over the last decade.
And they also have a unique approach to feeds when they’re generating alpha, when they’re outperforming their benchmark, they take a performance fee. And they go on longer and longer and obviously more profitable for the states that run the lottery. That’s the $2 that the lottery is worth for me. For 50 years.
But if you buy low multiples and sell high multiples, either in a long-only beat the benchmark sense, whether over and underweight, and you did the same thing everyone does and call me a hedge fund manager. And value and momentum do, whether it’s relative outperformance against a benchmark or absolute performance in a hedge fund.
We did that for stocks, we did that for currencies, for commodities, you name it. And if they make sure that there’s not gonna be massive losses at different tables on the same night, same weekend, same month, over time, they will just, just statistically accrue profits in a, in a more consistent manner.
Most clients, whether they’re individuals or institutions, have some sort of benchmark, a policy portfolio, some strategic asset allocation that they start with. That gold in this example needs to outperform to have that portfolio or at least keep up with over the long run for that portfolio to not under underperform the benchmark.
So, you know, we, we, we got involved and created a benchmark, a commodity indices at the time. So we, we became, we went from fixed income and j Aaron to thick fixed income currency and commodities. You had a lot of currency forwards trading, which made se made sense. 00:16:40 So there was a way to judge yourself. Made sense.
It’s still the reserve currency because we have the most liquid, the deepest capital markets in the world, right? Everything, it lagged inflation; it lagged the stock market; it lagged corporate profits; it lagged C-suite compensation. The dollar, I mean, there’s no alternative, right, to the to the U.S. DUTTA: Sure.
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