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I spend most of my time in the far less rarefied air of corporate finance and valuation, where businesses try to decide what projects to invest in, and investors attempt to estimate business value. A key tool in both endeavors is a hurdlerate a rate of return that you determine as your required return for business and investment decisions.
For the segment of my data that is macroeconomic, my primary source is FRED, the data set maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank , but I supplement with other data that I found online, including NAIC for bond spread data and Political Risk Services (PRS) for country risk scores. Insider, CEO & Institutional holdings 2. Beta & Risk 1.
In this post, I will focus on how companies around the world, and in different sectors, performed on their end game of delivering profits, by first focusing on profitability differences across businesses, then converting profitability into returns, and comparing these returns to the hurdlerates that I talked about in my last data update post.
After the rating downgrade, my mailbox was inundated with questions of what this action meant for investing, in general, and for corporate finance and valuation practice, in particular, and this post is my attempt to answer them all with one post. and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop.
To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. Data Update 4 for 2021: The HurdleRate Question. Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!
There are many services, including the World Bank and the Economist, who offer comprehensive country risk scores, and the map below includes composite country risk scores from Political Risk Services in June 2023: The pluses and minuses of comprehensive risk scores are visible in this table.
His latest book could not be more timely, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest,” it’s all about the history of interest rates, money lending, investing speculation, funded by banks and loans and credit. And Jeremy said, “Well, at least there’s enough structural redundancy in the banking system.”
Investment banks were not really a known concept in the area where I grew up. I lined up a bunch of job interviews with a variety of banks. So I got to know banks a little bit. So I interviewed with a bunch of banks, got a number of job offers by the end of the week, and joined Goldman Sachs in October 1998.
That said, I have tried other country risk scoring services (the Economist, The World Bank) and I find myself disagreeing with individual country scoring there as well. As I will argue in this section, currency choice affects your growth, cash flow and discount rate estimates, but ultimately should have no effect on intrinsic value.
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Savita Subramanian, US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, Bank of America , is below. They got bought by Bank America. And I think you will also, with no further ado, my discussion with Bank of America’s Savita. What can I say? Savita Sub Romanian, formerly of Merrill Lynch.
This was the era, 2005, 2006, all of my friends were looking to get banking roles. And so we, we get this contract written and I go off to grad school assuming I would go work at a big bank doing sales and trading in some quant role. A lot of them went to big banks. And I just sort of grew and evolved from there.
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