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In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdlerates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop. That is why the risk-free rate becomes an input into option pricing and forward pricing models , and its absence leaves a vacuum.
That said, it does mean that any broad conclusions (about profitability and revenues) that emerge from my data apply to public companies, and it may be dangerous to extrapolate to private businesses, especially in a year like 2020 where private businesses could have been affected more adversely by COVID shutdowns than public companies.
This was the era, 2005, 2006, all of my friends were looking to get banking roles. And so we, we get this contract written and I go off to grad school assuming I would go work at a big bank doing sales and trading in some quant role. A lot of them went to big banks. It was done with total return swaps with banks.
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