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Not surprisingly, the company listings are across the world, and I look at the breakdown of companies, by number and market cap, by geography: As you can see, the market cap of US companies at the start of 2025 accounted for roughly 49% of the market cap of global stocks, up from 44% at the start of 2024 and 42% at the start of 2023.
In fact, the business life cycle has become an integral part of the corporate finance, valuation and investing classes that I teach, and in many of the posts that I have written on this blog. In 2022, I decided that I had hit critical mass, in terms of corporate life cycle content, and that the material could be organized as a book.
What is a hurdlerate for a business? In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdlerates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdlerates to vary across companies. What is a hurdlerate?
In this post, I will focus on how companies around the world, and in different sectors, performed on their end game of delivering profits, by first focusing on profitability differences across businesses, then converting profitability into returns, and comparing these returns to the hurdlerates that I talked about in my last data update post.
Data: Trickle to a Flood! It is perhaps a reflection of my age that I remember when getting data to do corporate financial analysis or valuation was a chore. By the same token, it is impossible to use a pricing metric (PE or EV to EBITDA), without a sense of the cross sectional distribution of that metric at the time.
Even though we live in an age where user platforms and hyper revenue growth can drive company valuations, that adage remains true. Accounting Profit Measures. To understand the different measures of accounting profit, let us look at how each measure of profit is computed in an income statement.
That year, I computed these industry-level statistics for five variables that I found myself using repeatedly in my valuations, and once I had them, I could not think of a good reason to keep them secret. Valuation Pricing Growth & Reinvestment Profitability Risk Multiple s 1. Insider, CEO & Institutional holdings 2.
Even though we live in an age where user platforms and hyper revenue growth can drive company valuations, that adage remains true. Accounting Profit Measures To understand the different measures of accounting profit, let us look at how each measure of profit is computed in an income statement.
Thus, you and I can disagree about whether beta is a good measure of risk, but not on the principle that no matter what definition of risk you ultimately choose, riskier investments need higher hurdles than safer investments. Don't get me wrong!
It is perhaps a reflection of my age that I remember when getting data to do corporate financial analysis or valuation was a chore. Thus, without a sense of what comprises a high or low profit margin for a firm, or what the cost of capital is for the typical company, it is easy to create "fairy tale" valuations and analyses.
To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. It is very likely that these rules of thumb were developed from data and observation, but at a different point in time.
The failures of the signal have been variously attributed to low interest rates, accounting mis-measurement of earnings (especially at tech companies), and by some, to animal spirits. On the risk free rate, I assume that rates will rise over time to 2%, and that 5% is a fair ERP, given history.
To estimate the equity risk premium, for most countries I start with default spreads, either based on the sovereign ratings assigned by the ratings agencies, or from the market, in the form of sovereign CDS spreads. in my July 2023 update) and apply this scalar to the default spread, to arrive at a country risk premium.
” look at the Monte Carlo simulations, look at what is the hurdlerate. But we want it on the calendar so that we keep clients and ourselves accountable so that we make sure that those meetings actually do happen. So, last year, valuations were high, interest rates were low. Is it at 1.5%?
CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. All these factors have an interest rate embedded in them.
And my dad had always said, as many young kids get this advice, doctor, lawyer, accountant, engineer. SALISBURY: And accountant seemed like a reasonable option. And I kind of stumbled my way into accounting. That background of being an accountant was just great bedrock training. RITHOLTZ: Sure. Very different fields.
And one of the worst performing factors has been valuation. So we’re now in an environment where all the 45-year-old portfolio managers out there have been, have worked their entire careers in these momentum fueled markets, and they’ve been trained to believe that valuation doesn’t matter. 00:50:03 Not anymore.
00:21:21 [Speaker Changed] So this story came out that, oh, value is defensive because it has this valuation buffer to it 00:21:28 [Speaker Changed] In that one example. So you’ve got, you’ve got a modeling hurdlerate that you need to figure out when you’re adding diversifiers. The second is behavioral.
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