Musings on Markets

JANUARY 12, 2021

I take the point of view that uncertainty should not stop you from valuing companies, that your value estimates will have more error in them, but since the market also faces the same uncertainty, your best bargains may be in the midst of uncertainty. That tells me three things.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Investors are constantly in search of a single metric that will tell them whether a market is under or over valued, and consequently whether they should buying or selling holdings in that market. Risk premiums can and will change over time : Risk premiums are driven by risk aversion, and risk aversion itself can change over time.

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Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 21, 2023

And I love business, I love the markets, I want to go there. What sort of challenges — BUCKLEY: A couple of bear markets. BUCKLEY: We’ve had, let’s see, inflation at a 40-year high, tightest labor market of our lifetimes. We were losing market share in the critical retirement, the 401(k) business.

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Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 10, 2021

What is a hurdle rate for a business? In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdle rates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdle rates to vary across companies. What is a hurdle rate?

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 31, 2024

In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.

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CFO News Room

JANUARY 7, 2023

Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with market capitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.

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Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. RITHOLTZ: That’s how you know it’s going to be low?

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Musings on Markets

MARCH 8, 2023

The dividend principle, which is the focus of this post is built on a very simple principle, which is that if a company is unable to find investments that make returns that meet its hurdle rate thresholds, it should return cash back to the owners in that business.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 5, 2024

Thus, looking at only the companies in the S&P 500 may give you more reliable data, with fewer missing observations, but your results will reflect what large market cap companies in any sector or industry do, rather than what is typical for that industry.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 6, 2023

Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all. Data universe : In my sample, I include all publicly traded firms with market capitalizations that exceed zero, traded anywhere in the world.

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Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Note that this framework applies for all businesses, from the smallest, privately owned businesses, where debt takes the form of bank loans and even credit card borrowing and equity is owner savings, the largest publicly traded companies, where debt can be in the form of corporate bonds and equity is shares held by public market investors.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

I spent the first week of 2021 in the same way that I have spent the first week of every year since 1995, collecting data on publicly traded companies and analyzing how they navigated the cross currents of the prior year, both in operating and market value terms.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 28, 2024

In my last data updates for this year, I looked first at how equity markets rebounded in 2023 , driven by a stronger-than-expected economy and inflation coming down, and then at how interest rates mirrored this rebound.

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Barry Ritholtz

MAY 21, 2024

It’s because, you know, when everybody’s looking at all this data and it all seems terrible, chances are that information’s priced into the market. I 00:13:35 [Speaker Changed] Met him at a, a, a Market Technician’s Association. About equity markets. Oh, nice event. 00:13:46 [Speaker Changed] Yes.

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Barry Ritholtz

DECEMBER 26, 2023

You work at Capital Growth Financial and in former global markets before you join investing Giant Merrill Lynch in 2007, what was that transition like from smaller shops to a really, really big one? Accounting was very difficult. It’s about a 50% fail rate, something like that. That’s right. Maybe even more.

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Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

The other is pragmatic , since it is almost impossible to value a company or business, without a clear sense of how risk exposure varies across the world, since for many companies, either the inputs to or their production processes are in foreign markets or the output is outside domestic markets.

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Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

He, he does some really, really interesting research and gets deep into the weeds on things like market structure, liquidity cascades, what really drives returns, how much should you be focused on alpha versus beta. And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. It’s just a model.

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